2021 Melbourne Cup Preview
Our 2021 Melbourne Cup tips are here!
Incentivise has dominated the lead-up to the Melbourne Cup and he is set to start as the shortest-priced favourite in the race since Phar Lap.
Will Incentivise get the job done or will we see a Melbourne Cup upset?
We have analysed every single horse in the field and our complete 2021 Melbourne Cup tips can be found below!
Twilight Payment
Twilight Payment is back for another crack at the Melbourne Cup after his tough front-running win 12 months ago.
His lead-up form in Ireland and England has been as good as it was last year.
He failed to fire in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot, but he returned to his best form to win the Irish St Leger Trial Stakes before he finished a gallant second behind Sonnyboyliston in the Irish St Leger.
It takes an extremely good horse to win the Melbourne Cup in back-to-back years and Makybe Diva is the only top-weight to have won the race in the past 67 years, but Twilight Payment can’t be discounted.
Incentivise
Incentivise has an outstanding chance to become the first horse since Ethereal in 2001 to complete the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double.
His progression from a eighth place finish in a maiden at Toowoomba in March to a dominant Caulfield Cup winner has been absolutely staggering.
He proved his class with a tough first-up win in the Makybe Diva Stakes and he improved on that effort to win the Turnbull Stakes.
His victory in the Caulfield Cup was nothing short of outstanding.
The wide barrier draw ended up being a positive and Brett Prebble was able to ride him like the best horse in the race.
That was arguably the most impressive Caulfield Cup win since Might And Power in 1997 and there are plenty of parallels between the two horses.
The 3200 metres doesn’t look like it will be an issue and he makes his own luck right on the speed.
He is deserving of his status as a dominant favourite.
Spanish Mission
There are some fitness concerns surrounding Spanish Mission, but at this stage he has been cleared to take his place in the 2021 Melbourne Cup field.
He won the 2020 Doncaster Cup in impressive fashion and he has gone to another level in 2021.
The Noble Mission entire scored a dominant win in the Yorkshire Cup and he finished a gallant third behind Subjectivist in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot.
He earnt his trip to Melbourne with a second place finish behind Stradivarius in the Lonsdale Cup and that is some of the best staying form in the world.
The only real concern is his fitness and whether he might be a touch dour for the Melbourne Cup.
If he brings his best form, he is the main danger to Incentivise.
Verry Elleegant
Verry Elleegant is back for another crack at the Melbourne Cup after finishing a credible seventh behind Twilight Payment 12 months ago.
She remains one of the best mares in the country and she gives the impression that she might be looking for 3200 metres this campaign.
Verry Elleegant started her Spring campaign with a close second behind Mo’unga in the Winx Stakes and she claimed a ninth Group 1 win in the George Main Stakes.
She produced an out-of-character performance to finish fourth in the Turnbull Stakes, but she returned to a semblance of her best form with a third place finish in the Ladbrokes Cox Plate.
A very firm Flemington track isn’t ideal, but she does have class on her side.
Explosive Jack
Explosive Jack won the Tasmanian Derby, Australian Derby and South Australian Derby during the Autumn, but he hasn’t been able to replicate that form this Spring.
He chased home Incentivise in both the Makybe Diva Stakes and the Turnbull Stakes before he only beat home a single runner in the Caulfield Cup.
3200 metres shouldn’t be a problem, but he would need to improve substantially to be a genuine winning chance.
The Chosen One
The Chosen One is back for a third crack at the Melbourne Cup after finishing 17th in 2019 and fourth last year.
He hasn’t won in over a year and he has mixed his form this preparation.
The Savabeel gelding looked set for a big campaign when he finished a fast-finishing third in the Feehan Stakes before he finished fourth behind Zaaki in the Underwood Stakes.
He hit the line strongly to finish second behind Delphi in the Herbert Power Stakes, but he failed to fire in the Caulfield Cup.
There is no doubt that he is a better horse than his Caulfield Cup effort suggests and it would not surprise to see him in the mix once again.
Delphi
Delphi has performed well in his first preparation in Australia and looks like one of the value runners in the Melbourne Cup.
He started his campaign with a fourth place finish in the Heatherlie Stakes and was only narrowly denied by Nonconformist in the MRC Foundation Plate.
He stamped himself as a leading Caulfield Cup contender with a classy win in the Herbert Power Stakes, but he failed to fire on the quick back-up.
The fact that Damien Oliver sticks is a positive and he can bounce back from his Caulfield Cup flop.
$34 is over the odds.
Ocean Billy
Ocean Billy is now with the Chris Waller stable after starting his career in New Zealand.
He won the Auckland Cup over 3200 metres earlier and all of his best form has come over extended staying trips.
The Ocean Park gelding made his Australian racing debut in the Caulfield Cup and he finished a more than credible ninth in the Caulfield.
The fact that he is a proven performer over 3200 metres is a positive and he might be a good bet for a top ten finish, but he probably doesn’t have the class to win a Melbourne Cup.
Selino
Selino has the chance to become the first horse since Makybe Diva in 2004 to complete the Sydney Cup/Melbourne Cup double.
He failed to fire in the Chelmsford Stakes or the Kingston Town Stakes before he returned to a semblance of his best form in The Bart Cummings.
His Caulfield Cup run was fairly disappointing and he was never able to get into the race.
The step-up to 3200 metres is a positive and Flemington is a track that suits.
Johnny Get Angry
Johnny Get Angry has pulled off a surprise at Flemington in the past and, despite Glen Boss’ concerns, will get his crack at the Melbourne Cup.
It is fair to say that he hasn’t fired this campaign.
He was soundly beaten in the Aurie’s Star Handicap, Makybe Diva Stakes and Turnbull Stakes before he beat home only a single runner in the Geelong Cup.
It would take an enormous form turnaround for him to be competitive in the Melbourne Cup.
Knights Order
Knights Order won the Brisbane Cup over 3200 metres during the Queensland Winter Racing Carnival, but hasn’t been able to replicate that form this campaign.
He has been comfortably beaten in the MRC Foundation Cup, The Bart Cummings and the Geelong Cup, while he is on the quick back-up after finishing seventh in the Lexus Hotham Stakes on Victoria Derby Day.
The So You Think gelding will go forward and should be in the race for a long way, but isn’t going well enough to be a genuine winning chance.
Persan
Persan is having his second tilt at the Melbourne Cup after finishing a gallant fifth behind Twilight Payment last year.
He has been excellent without winning this preparation.
There was plenty of merit in his first-up effort and his run in the Turnbull Stakes was better than it looks on paper.
Linda Meech rode him aggressively in the Caulfield Cup and he was still able to tough it out to finish third behind Incentivise.
The step-up to 3200 metres is not a problem for him and there is no reason he can’t be in the top five mix once again.
Carif
Carif will carry the famous colours of Dato Tan Chin Nam in the Melbourne Cup.
He started his campaign with a good fourth in the Cameron Handicap in Newcastle before he was never able to get into the race in the Hill Stakes.
The So You Think gelding bounced back to a semblance of his best form to finish fourth in the St Leger Stakes, but he was soundly beaten in the Tattersalls Cup.
He has won over 3200 metres, after taking out the Ladbrokes Sandown Cup last year, but he does look outclassed at this level.
Master Of Wine
It has been a long time between wins for former spruik horse Master Of Wine.
He made a slow start to his Spring Racing Carnival campaign and he was never competitive in the Winx Stakes, Chelmsford Stakes and Kingston Town Stakes.
His third place finish in The Bart Cummings suggested that he was back to a semblance of his best form, but he was poor in the Caulfield Cup.
The 3200 metres seems a genuine concern and he would need to improve substantially on his Caulfield Cup performance.
Pondus
Pondus is one of two Lloyd Williams-owned runners in the 2021 Melbourne Cup.
He finished second in both the Bendigo Cup and the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in Melbourne last year and he has raced well without winning in both his starts this campaign.
Pondus toughed it out on the speed to finish fifth in The Bart Cummings and he was a touch disappointing when beaten as favourite in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup.
Robert Hickmott will have him ready to peak in the Melbourne Cup and he is one to include in exotics.
Grand Promenade
Grand Promenade hasn’t had a spell since March, but he continues to work his way through the grades.
He chased home Realm Of Flowers in The Andrew Ramsden and he went on to score a pair of dominant wins at Flemington.
The MRC Foundation Cup wasn’t run to suit and he still finished a gallant fifth before he earnt his place in the Melbourne Cup with an excellent win in The Bart Cummings.
There is no fitter horse in this field and he has an outstanding record at Flemington.
It doesn’t surprise that he has been popular in early betting.
Miami Bound
Miami Bound is another horse having their second crack at the Melbourne Cup after finishing 14th behind Twilight Payment last year.
She raced well without winning in the Autumn, she finished third in both the Tancred Stakes and the Sydney Cup, but she has raced a bit flat during her Spring Racing Carnival campaign.
Her efforts in the Heatherlie Stakes and the MRC Foundation Cup were poor before she showed some improvement in The Bart Cummings and the Moonee Valley Cup.
Most of her best form has been in the wet and she would need plenty of rain to be a genuine winning hope.
Port Guillaume
Port Guillaume has failed to fire since arriving in Australia.
He finished at the tail of the field in both the Feehan Stakes and The Bart Cummings before he produced an improved effort to finish tenth in the Caulfield Cup.
The Melbourne Cup has always been his major target and his best European form would be good enough to have him in the mix for the top five.
She’s Ideel
She’s Ideel doesn’t win out of turn, but she has developed into a very consistent stayer.
She showed her quality with a string of impressive performances in the Autumn, highlighted by a second place finish in the Tancred Stakes, and she has replicated that form in the Spring.
Her fast-finishing third in the Winx Stakes suggested that she was in for a big campaign and she has gone on to run well in the Chelmsford Stakes, Kingston Town Stakes, The Metropolitan and the Caulfield Cup.
She simply doesn’t run a bad race and she is a better chance than her current odds suggest.
Future Score
Future Score looked like a stayer with a big future 12 months ago, but he has failed to produce his best form this preparation.
He was never able to get into the race in the MRC Foundation Plate and the Herbert Power Stakes before he tired late after taking up the running in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup.
The Melbourne Cup is a tougher assignment again and he doesn’t seem to be going well enough to be a serious winning chance.
Tralee Rose
Tralee Rose is the best lightweight chance in the 2021 Melbourne Cup.
She stamped herself as a stayer to watch with dominant wins in The Bagot and the Lord Reims Stakes and she has continued to improve this campaign.
The Tavistock mare started her Spring campaign with a pair of third place finishes in the Heatherlie Stakes and the MRC Foundation Cup before she chased home Grand Promenade in The Bart Cummings.
The Geelong Cup looked like the right race for her and she was able to tough out a narrow win.
She would still need to improve to win a Melbourne Cup, but she is a fit mare that still has plenty of upside.
Floating Artist
Floating Artist has snuck in the Melbourne Cup field and is due a change of luck following a couple of luckless efforts.
He worked his way through the grades with three impressive wins before he was beaten as a short-priced favourite in the Coongy Cup after the race wasn’t run to suit.
The horse was bolting in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, but didn’t find clear running until it was too late and he was still able to find the line strongly to finish a close second behind Lunar Flare.
He is a stayer that is heading in the right direction and he does get in well at the weights.
Great House
Great House secured his berth in the Melbourne Cup with a good win in the Lexus Hotham Stakes.
The Galileo gelding has hardly put a hoof wrong this campaign.
He showed his quality with a good win in the Newcastle Gold Cup and he went on to finish fifth at Group 1 level in The Metropolitan and the Caulfield Cup.
There was a lot to like about his win in the Lexus Hotham Stakes and there is no reason why he can’t replicate his Caulfield Cup effort.
Sir Lucan
Sir Lucan is one of the most interesting horses in the Melbourne Cup field and will make his Australian racing debut in the Group 1 event.
He won the Yeats Stakes at Navan in May and went on to run well in the Gordon Stakes and the Great Voltigeur Stakes before he failed to fire at Group 1 level St Leger Stakes.
Northern Hemisphere three-year-olds have an excellent record in the Melbourne Cup in recent years and Sir Lucan is one horse that does have the x-factor to win the Melbourne Cup.
2021 Melbourne Cup Tips
1st – Incentivise
2nd – Tralee Rose
3rd – Delphi
4th – Floating Artist
The post 2021 Melbourne Cup Preview appeared first on Ladbrokes Blog.
from Ladbrokes Blog https://www.ladbrokes.com.au/blog/2021/10/30/2021-melbourne-cup-preview/
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