5 Lessons Learned – NRL Round 24

The smell of September is permeating the NRL and the penultimate weekend of the regular season produced a string of vital results.

The Roosters and Rabbitohs sealed their finals berth with tough victories over top-four opposition, the Broncos slumped to the brink of playoffs oblivion as the Raiders look set to sneak in, while the Tigers put one clumsy hand on the wooden spoon with one of the great blunders.

1 – Finals Arrive Early

If Round 24 was any indication, we’re in for a scorching 2022 NRL finals series.

Under immense pressure heading into heavyweight showdowns, Sydney Roosters and South Sydney sealed their playoffs passage with gritty wins over in-form teams above them on the ladder.

Losses would have put them firmly in the final-round firing line in a tight Top 8 race.

The Roosters looked certain to be run down in a fiery, drama-charged showdown in Melbourne on Friday. But a titanic defensive display inside the last 10 minutes saw the visitors hold on for an epic 18-14 win.

Saturday’s clash at Accor Stadium wasn’t quite up to the same standard, but the Cameron Murray-inspired Rabbitohs held their nerve and rode their luck to seal a 20-10 victory over the high-flying Cowboys late.

The high-stakes blockbusters keep coming with six of the seven confirmed finalists facing each other in Round 25. Parramatta and Melbourne square off in Sydney on Thursday in what is virtually a shootout for a Top 4 finish; the Storm could also climb to third and avoid a week one trip to Penrith.

In what promises to be one of the matches of the season, bitter rivals the Roosters and Rabbitohs will cut the ribbon at the reopened Allianz Stadium – with a home elimination final the reward for the winner of the derby (though they will almost certainly line up against each other again in week one if the Eels upset the Storm).

The Cowboys host runaway minor premiers the Panthers on Saturday, aiming to possibly reclaim second place (in the unlikely event the Knights roll the Sharks) but perhaps more importantly skipping a qualifying final trek to the foot of the Blue Mountains with a loss potentially demoting them to fourth.

In a season of phenomenal progress, the Cowboys have lost their last four to fellow Top 8 sides in a worrying trend leading into the finals.

The Roosters have been the big movers in the Grand Final Winner market, joining the Sharks on the third line at $8.

The inscrutable Eels are fifth favourites at $11, with the Cowboys easing out to $13 and the Rabbitohs are $15 to go one better than last year.

A Panthers ($2.15) versus Storm ($6) grand final is still favoured, but the playoffs promise to be far more than merely a two-horse race.

2 – Enforcers’ Battle To Find Balance

The gladiatorial clash between Kiwi front-row behemoths Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Nelson Asofa-Solomona was absorbing rugby league theatre and a tantalising prospect of what may await in the big end-of-season games.

It was a throwback to Harragon v Carroll – and something of a rarity in an era of no-punch edicts and an increased focus on player safety.

There is a nagging sensation, however, that a team’s season may go down the gurgler courtesy of an enforcer falling off the disciplinary tightrope via a send-off or suspension.

JWH copped 10 minutes in the sin-bin for his overexuberance during his running battle with NAS, whose ugly penchant for dropping a forearm in the tackle is a costly accident waiting to happen (and arguably should have seen him sitting on the sidelines currently for rearranging Wayde Egan’s dental structure in Round 20).

Hey @NRL,I don’t say this about many players but there’s tough and then there’s this… oh and I believe this guy has done it before. It’s utter garbage and honestly disgusting. Sort it out. He shouldn’t be playing again this season. #NRL #NRLStormRoosters pic.twitter.com/esYRRqLQmc
— Jake Carden (@JakeCarden13) August 27, 2022

Both players escaped with fined despite after being charged in the wake of Friday’s explosive encounter.

But representative prop Lindsay Collins won’t play again in 2022 unless the Roosters reach the grand final thanks to a hip-drop tackle – unless he fights the grade-three charge and wins.

On @telegraph_sport back page tomorrow: Why the NRL is facing a legal timebomb over grubby acts.
Full report via @BuzzRothfield: https://t.co/mqiAI97qYZ pic.twitter.com/L4S328exK0
— James Silver (@JamesSilver3) August 28, 2022

With referees, the Bunker and the judiciary on tenterhooks, it seems inevitable one of the NRL’s hardmen will overstep the fine line of legality.

Meanwhile, Victor Radley’s lack of self-preservation resulted in an early end to his night as a harrowing head injury clouds his involvement for the remainder of the Tricolours’ campaign.

3 – Brittle Broncos’ Backslide

Five weeks ago Brisbane was sitting pretty in the top four and hurtling towards a return to the finals, Adam Reynolds marshalling an effervescent young backline behind a big, dynamic forward pack.

Now the ninth-placed Broncos will be flat out beating the also-ran Dragons in Wollongong in Round 25 just to stay mathematically alive until the last day of the regular season, when the Raiders – who are also 13-10 but have a 43-point for-and-against advantage – will surely extinguish their Top 8 dream by beating the Tigers.

The Broncos’ incredible collapse began with a mystifying 32-18 home loss to the Tigers in Round 20, which also cost them trump forward Patrick Carrigan to suspension (he returns this week).

But backing up their 60-12 beatdown at the hands of the Storm with a 53-6 shellacking from the Eels – both at Suncorp Stadium – with so much at stake is especially hard to accept for Broncos fans.

The fact they have conceded over two points more on average than every team currently in the Top 8 tells the tale of where Kevvie’s charges have come unstuck.

Meanwhile, reports some players were unhappy with Walters’ post-match spray (not to mention Selwyn Cobbo’s request to sit out such an important game) suggests their psychological resolve is on par with their defensive capabilities.

Broncos great Gorden Tallis has leapt to the defence of embattled coach Kevin Walters, after it was revealed he called his players 'soft' following their Round 24 loss.

STORY: https://t.co/6IlhexhAJU #NRL pic.twitter.com/sRFdTxYBmR
— 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬 Australia (@sportingnewsau) August 28, 2022

Now a $6 longshot to squeak into the playoffs, Brisbane is highly questionable value as $1.65 favourite to beat St George Illawarra on the road given what they’ve dished up recently.

4 – Rallying Raiders Emerge As Finals X-Factor

Punters who astutely got on the Raiders to make the Top 8 at $3 last week are absolutely laughing. They have come in to just $1.12 heading into the final round.

Canberra jumped into the top half for the first time since Round 3 courtesy of a 48-6, nine-tries-to-one demolition of a sorry Manly outfit at home on Saturday.

The rampaging Raiders ran for over 2,200 metres, with a whopping 12 players recording 120-plus.

Sebastian Kris, Jack Wighton and Jamal Fogarty all notched two try-assists.

The Raiders have come a long way since a 2-6 start to the season looked to have crippled their finals hopes.

They’ve now won six of their last seven – and after making hard work of beating some low-grade opposition, they are on course to head into the playoffs healthy and with a head of steam up.

Still an $81 longshot in the premiership market, the Raiders are not quite a title dark horse.

But there’s few sides who would be looking forward to taking this unpredictable, firepower-laden line-up that has nothing to lose.

They also boast 2022 wins over four of the seven confirmed finalists.

The Green Machine have the advantage of knowing exactly what the equation is before their Sunday afternoon clash with battling Wests Tigers at Leichhardt Oval.

There’s a decent chance the Raiders may not even need a win to retain eighth spot – potentially providing Ricky Stuart with the opportunity to rest key players.

5 – Footy IQ Seals Tigers’ Spoon Fate

Now two points adrift of the field in last spot, Wests Tigers are all but certain to collect their maiden wooden spoon as a joint venture after an all-time gaffe cost them an upset win over St George Illawarra in a low-quality affair befitting of the combatants.

Ahead by six with eight minutes left, the Tigers unravelled when rookie winger Junior Pauga inexplicably played at a short dropout from the Dragons that failed to go the required 10 metres.

Instead of receiving a likely match-sealing penalty, the Tigers were pinged.

The Saints marched upfield, levelled with a converted try and snatched a 24-22 result with a 79th-minute penalty goal.

Even if the Tigers upset the Raiders on Sunday as $3.25 underdogs, it’s highly unlikely to be enough to avoid the spoon.

The 15th-placed Titans – who outlasted the Knights 36-26 despite the 51st-minute send-off of Brian Kelly – are 75 points better off in the for-and-against department and take on the Warriors in Round 25.

The Tigers have won just one of 11 games since ditching Michael Maguire and have the worst attacking record in the NRL.

It will take more than the addition of Apisai Koroisau and (hopefully) Isaiah Papali’i to the roster and a coaching team of Tim Sheens and Benji Marshall to syphon out the staggering lack of rugby league wherewithal and awareness that plagues the club from top to bottom.

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from Ladbrokes Blog https://www.ladbrokes.com.au/blog/2022/08/29/5-lessons-learned-nrl-round-24-3/
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