2023 Australian Guineas Preview
A capacity field of three-year-olds has accepted for Saturday’s Group 1 Australian Guineas over the mile at Flemington.
The $1 million feature has attracted the likes of dual Group 1 winner Jacquinot and last-start CS Hayes Stakes winner Elliptical, as well as Mitchell Freedman’s promising colt, Attrition.
The Guineas has produced several future champions of the turf, including last year’s winner Hitotsu going on to claim the ATC Derby, and Mystic Journey going on to win the All-Star Mile two weeks later in 2019.
Which colt or filly will stamp themselves as one to watch?
Our thoughts on every runner in this year’s 2023 Australian Guineas can be found below.
1. Jacquinot (11)
Jacquinot steps out in search of his hat-trick after securing a second Group 1 in the C.F. Orr Stakes at Sandown a few weeks ago.
The boom Rubick colt was awarded the win on a protest after lifting down the middle of the track to finish over the top of all bar Gentleman Roy.
That performance suggested he’ll handle his first look at the mile, and there should be further improvement to come with a solid three-week gap between starts.
Damian Lane has been responsible for four of his five wins so far, and from the wide gate, the pair should be able to get back early and save their best for late.
2. Elliptical (2)
Elliptical placed twice at Group 1 level during the spring, finishing runner-up in the Caulfield Guineas before being narrowly denied in the Spring Champion Stakes when pipped right on the line by Sharp ‘N’ Smart.
The Dundeel colt resumed in the CS Hayes Stakes a fortnight ago over 1400m where he settled well back in the field before storming down the outside to get up by half a length.
He probably would have won by more if he wasn’t forced to shift out at around the 400m mark, so everything suggests the rise to the mile should suit. Blake Shinn has a strong rapport with the three-year-old and barrier 2 should see them adopt similar tactics.
3. Osipenko (13)
Osipenko is a Sydney-based colt that made a real impression during the spring running third in the Caulfield Guineas.
The son of Pierro appeared to be in need of the run in the Eskimo Prince Stakes first-up, but showed real improvement two weeks later holding on to win the Hobartville at Rosehill right on the line.
He was a little unlucky in the run home that day, and it’s fair to say he may have won by more if he wasn’t bumped over the final 200m. The wide gate makes things tricky, but having raced over the mile during the spring, there’s a case to be made for him running a place.
4. Mr Maestro (15)
Mr Maestro presents fitter third-up after finding the line quite well to finish runner-up in the Autumn Classic last Saturday at Sandown.
The Savabeel colt was a distant second to Pericles but still made up enormous ground in the run home following an awkward start.
Racing on the quick backup wasn’t to his liking in the Champions Stakes during the spring, but he does rate an each-way hope dropping back to the mile after stepping out over 1800m last week. If he can offset the wide gate and shuffle across early, he’s a chance.
5. Virtuous Circle (10)
The step up to the mile should be to the liking of Virtuous Circle in his second run back.
Liam Howley’s colt was slow away and never really a factor in the Autumn Stakes first-up over 1400m, but he did run a good race over this trip in his second run back in the Stutt Stakes during the spring.
Given this is his first look at the elite level though, I’d prefer to watch him go around.
6. The Fortune Teller (6)
The Fortune Teller produced an eye-catching effort first-up in the Autumn Stakes, peeling three-wide at the turn to hit the line strongly for third.
Like others, he ran some honest races over the mile during the spring, most notably beaten just two lengths in the Carbine Club Stakes at Headquarters.
I love the fact he’s had a jump-out in between starts, and there’s certainly been a lot to like about the form from both John Allen and the Maher and Eustace stable recently.
7. Bank Maur (17)
Bank Maur was the beaten favourite second-up in the CS Hayes Stakes, a performance worth forgiving after being caught four-wide and settling towards the rear.
Just like in last year’s Caulfield Guineas, he’s unfortunately drawn a horror gate ahead of his return to Group 1 level. Looks unlikely.
8. Amenable (1)
Amenable looks to be one of the better value plays in this year’s Australian Guineas.
The Lonhro colt was beaten just under half a length first-up in the Autumn Stakes where he clocked the fourth-fastest final 200m of the entire meeting.
The fact he’s come out and won a recent Cranbourne jump-out is a big plus, while he also ran a huge race over the mile in the Caulfield Guineas last year beaten a length by Golden Mile.
Barrier 1 should see him settle midfield with Damien Oliver in the saddle for another crack.
9. Elkington Road (4)
Elkington Road won back-to-back starts to begin his career but faded badly in the finish up to Group 1 level for the first time in last year’s Caulfield Guineas.
He’s since returned a pleasing effort first-up in the CS Hayes Stakes however, settling midfield before responding well to pressure to finish half a length off Elliptical.
The All Too Hard gelding maps to get a similar run in transit from the identical gate, and does have claims as a knockout chance.
10. Lindermann (14)
Lindermann was a comfortable winner of a BM78 at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago, but is likely to find this tougher stepping out against Group 1 company for the first time.
He was beaten 10 lengths over the mile at Randwick in Dulcify Stakes during the spring and would need to improve significantly to be a factor here.
11. Muramasa (16)
Muramasa has mixed his form since winning on debut at Sale last September.
He found himself too far back at blowing the start first-up in the CS Hayes Stakes but did make up some ground, albeit too late.
Drawn poorly and likely looking further, I’m happy to look towards others.
12. Maximillius (3)
Maximillius is rock-hard fit for three runs back but appears slightly out of his depth here.
He showed real improvement for third in the CS Hayes a couple of weeks ago, a strong effort given he was three weeks between runs that day. Racing on a quicker turnaround should help, but untried over the mile, he looks unlikely to factor.
13. Holymanz (5)
Holymanz gave a determined effort to score first-up at The Valley after racing four-wide, no cover throughout.
He had a similar run in transit go against him in the CS Hayes a fortnight later but still fought on bravely to finish a narrow second to Ellipitical.
He weakened late over the mile in the Sandown Guineas last year, but does warrant consideration for a place based on recent form.
14. Attrition (7)
Attrition was denied his hat-trick in the CS Hayes after racing wide and finishing half a length off Elliptical.
He won his previous two starts at Sandown and Geelong by a combined seven lengths though, and it’s fair to wonder whether 1400m was a little on the short side for him last time out.
Jamie Kah rode him to a place during his maiden prep and jumps back in the saddle with plenty of options at her disposal from barrier 7. How he handles the mile for the first time looks the main query.
15. Legarto (9)
Legarto is a Kiwi-based filly that has made the trek across the shores to take on the boys.
The Toronado three-year-old was unbeaten in five starts before stepping out in the Listed Karaka Million 3YO Classic at Pukehoke back in January where she found herself too far back to score.
The fact she won the Group 1 New Zealand Guineas over the mile by a whopping five lengths during the spring stands out on her resume, alongside the fact last week’s Blue Diamond winner Michael Dee has been booked to ride.
16. Laced Up Heels (12)
Laced Up Heels is an Ascot-based filly that has mixed her form since arriving in Victoria.
Last year’s Burgess Queen Stakes winner went on to run a clear second in the Champion Fillies Stakes over the mile on her home track, but has finished only fairly in two starts at Sandown.
She stuck to the task well in the Armanasco Stakes last week beaten just over two lengths but has another horror gate to contend with. Looks unlikely.
Emergencies
17. Japanese Emperor (8)
The post 2023 Australian Guineas Preview appeared first on Ladbrokes Blog.
from Ladbrokes Blog https://www.ladbrokes.com.au/blog/2023/03/01/2023-australian-guineas-preview/
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