Challenges In Adapting Betting Systems For A New Season
As we explore the landscape of football betting for the new season, two key questions arise: How can we compare new and established teams? And how can we keep our betting system flexible throughout a season?
These questions aren’t just theoretical — they’re the challenges I faced integrating Burnley, Sheffield United, and Luton Town into the Fickle Football Fan Formula.
Here’s how I approached setting up my system for the new Premier League season.
Inducting Newly Promoted Teams
It’s tough to gauge how newly promoted Championship teams stack up against Premier League regulars. They haven’t played each other often, and cup matches aren’t enough to judge. This requires some creative thinking.
The Championship Winner
The approach I’ve devised so far assumes that the Championship winner holds a similar skill level to the team that placed 18th (3rd from bottom) in the previous Premier League season.
This means that Burnley, the victors of the 2022-23 Championship season, are considered to be of comparable quality to Leicester City, who were relegated with 34 points. This hypothesis posits that Burnley would hypothetically have achieved 34 points had they participated in the previous Premier League season.
This might seem harsh given Burnley’s emphatic Championship run. However, it’s unwise to expect an instant rise to the top tier of the Premier League—it’s a big step up.
Ranking 2nd & 3rd Championship Teams
Using the same principle, I ranked the 2nd (Sheffield United) and 3rd (Luton Town) Championship teams as the 19th and 20th in the Premier League.
I’ve also taken this one step further by accounting for the point differences between the three promoted teams:
- Sheffield United concluded the Championship season with 91 points, equivalent to 90.1% of Burnley’s points. Accordingly, their Premier League points tally is calculated as 91.2% of 34, resulting in 31 points.
- Luton Town amassed 80 points in this Championship, which is 79.2% of Burnley’s total. Consequently, their Premier League points tally is calculated as 79.2% of 34, equalling 27 points.
This simplistic method enabled me to approach the upcoming season with a reasonable understanding of the hierarchical order of all teams, as well as the gaps between them.
Adapting Through The Season
At the beginning of a new football season, results are notoriosuly unpredictable. Players are settling in and the effects of the summer are wearing off. So, it’s wise to stabilise your betting system by incorporating a sufficient set of past data.
That said, it’s equally important to acknowledge changes occurring as the season progresses. Here’s how I maintain a balanced approach.
Use A Sufficient Data Set
Consider this hypothetical scenario: the recently promoted Sheffield United surges to the top of the league table within the initial five games.
Such short-term fluctuations often result from randomness and hold little significance. Consequently, it’s unwise for your betting system to draw overarching conclusions based on a meager dataset. Therefore I suggest using a whole season of data as a basis for the new season. Anything before that becomes increasingly less relevant.
While some bettors might lean towards analysing the latter part of the prior season or a brief timeframe—like the last ten games—I’m inclined to avoid this approach. Teams often experience fluctuations in performance during different phases of the season, influenced by their ambitions, aims, schedules and physical states. Therefore starting out with the entire previous year’s data helps to ‘level out’ those ups and downs, giving a well-rounded outlook.
Introduce a “Take Over” Moment
Consider this: Leicester finished 14th in the 2014-15 season and won the Premier League title the following season. So your betting system needs to acknowledge recent changes to be effective.
For the Fickle Fan Formula, I chose to introduce a “take over” point after 19 games: the moment where only the current season’s results influence the selection method. This means that the importance given to last year’s results gradually erodes as the season progresses until half way through where it no longer has any impact.
So, if a low-rated club is doing well by Christmas, the system will view them as a serious competitor rather than holding onto a historical view. The same principle goes for a highly-rated club that is struggling in the current campaign. This approach appears to improve accuracy.
Check out the Fickle Football Fan Formula to learn more about the selection method it uses.
The post Challenges In Adapting Betting Systems For A New Season appeared first on Punter2Pro.
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