What is the Green Lumber Fallacy in Betting?
The green lumber fallacy is a cognitive error described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book “Antifragile”. The term derives its name from an anecdote about a successful trader of green lumber, which refers to newly sawn wood that has not yet been dried, who operated under the mistaken belief that green lumber was actually lumber painted green. This fallacy highlights a common misconception…
from BettingGods.com https://bettinggods.com/faqs/betting/what-is-the-green-lumber-fallacy-in-betting/
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